Abstract Mag. Dr. Anna Mayerthaler
Concerns over transport problems have been a constant issue over the past decades and recently deepened in the context of climate change because of the ever-increasing transport related CO2 emissions. The transport sector is the sector not only experiencing the strongest growth over the last years but the sector with the biggest share in national GHG emissions compared to all other sectors (Anderl, Freudenschuß et al. 2011). Not only the CO2 emissions are in a steep rise but according to the federal ministry of transport innovation and technology, the majority of the trips in Austria are car trips and the share of private motorized transport of the total passenger kilometres travelled is increasing since 1990 (Bundesministerium für Verkehr Innovation und Technologie 2012). To date there is just one modelling approach in Austria to forecast the developments in the passenger transport sector, which is the Austrian transport prognosis 2025+. The necessity in CO2 reduction and changing the transport behaviour towards eco friendly modes and the existence of a single prognosis so far clearly make the case for further research in this area. In this thesis a modelling approach for the whole territory of Austria is used to improve the understanding of development paths for the passenger transport sector. The work is guided by to research hypothesis: (1) There is interaction between transport, the spatial structure of settlements and the economy forming a dynamic self-organising system. (2) Non-motorized modes are an essential element of the transport system and are strongly influenced by settlement patterns. Due to spatial linkages, they have to be considered even at higher spatial levels where their influence is not intuitively apparent. From a methodological point of view land-use/transport interaction (LUTI) modelling is chosen. The strategic land-use/transport interaction model MARS is such a LUTI model (Pfaffenbichler 2003), applied on a series of urban case studies. In this thesis it has been developed further to use it for the whole territory of Austria and to model the impacts of transport and land-use policies on a national scale in a forecasting approach. MARS is a system dynamics model with the main feature to model different system speeds, which occur in the interrelations between the transport and the land-use system. The main research questions raised are: (1) What are the overall effects of different transport and land-use policy scenarios and different development paths of electric mobility on transport behaviour and CO2 emissions on a national scale? (2) Which policy combinations enable to reach the set targets in the -Kyoto protocol- and European targets like in the -White Paper 2011- and the -Roadmap 2050-? Starting from a -business as usual- scenario, which depicts the development over time without any substantial changes, different policy scenarios are developed. In addition, to single out the separate policies, two scenarios are developed where no technological progress (concerning the fleet development) is taking place. The set of transport policies cover pricing measures as well as physical measures and differ in magnitude and selection of policy. The land-use policies implemented differ in magnitude but consist of the following components: - Share of new developments taking place within or outside the settlement entity - Amount of land consumption - Liveliness of town centres (shrinking and growing municipalities) For the fleet development also different scenarios are developed, differing whether and how electric vehicles gain acceptance. It becomes apparent that the fleet development (whether there is a strong shift towards electric cars) and the energy mix (high shares of renewables or not) for the production of electricity supplying the E-cars, is a crucial factor in influencing CO2 emissions. Taking the transport behaviour into consideration, stand-alone transport policies seem to be more influential than stand-alone land-use policies. The thesis shows that a pure shift in technology with the assumption of a fast change of energy supply towards renewable energy would significantly decrease CO2 emissions, but would not influence the transport behaviour towards less energy consuming modes. From a societal perspective this might not be the desired outcome taking into consideration that the urban agglomerations in Austria are growing. Keeping the quality of living at a high level while reducing the availability of public space per person (because also E-cars consume public space) is difficult. Therefore changes in physical infrastructure and more public space for the environmentally friendly modes will be necessary to fulfil the task of increasing the quality of living in cities. Electric cars might be a good alterative in rural regions where the conditions for public transport are less favourable for enabling people to fulfil their daily needs. The thesis provides added value in the field of national transport/land-use modelling. The developed model is capable of modelling different transport and land-use policies as well as different development paths for electric vehicles. The research carried out gives insights into the effects of divers transport and land-use policies on the development of CO2 emissions and the transport behaviour in Austria.