Verkehrsplanung und Verkehrstechnik

Prospects (2000)

(Procedures for Recommending Optimal Sustainable Planning of European City Transport Systems)

Project duration: 02/2000 - 02/2003

PROSPECTS was a member of the LUTR (Land Use and Transportation Research Cluster) . Information about the LUTR cluster is also available on CORDIS .

Final results:  Decision Makers Guidebook , Methodological Guidebook , Policy guidebook  Final dissemination workshop: Presentations: New! The Viennese perspective   (J. Gielge, MA 18)

Results City Decision Making Requirements Intermediate Results:

Final results:


Evaluation Tools

Forecasting and Analysis Tools


Replaces the intermediate result ITS Working paper 545 "The instruments of transport policy" PROSPECTS Set of Guidebooks: Printed versions of the Decision Makers Guidebook and the Methodological Guidebook are available. Please contact Paul Pfaffenbichler . The Policy Guidebook is webbased.

Deliverable 13:  Policy Guidebook
Deliverable 14:  Methodological Guidebook (pdf, 2.9 MB)

Decision makers Guidebook English Version 2005 (pdf, 2.0 MB)

Deliverable 15:  Decision Makers Guidebook           o English version (pdf, 2.8 MB)           o German version (pdf, 3.1 MB)           o Swedish version (pdf, 2.8 MB)           o French version (pdf, 2.7 MB)           o Italian version (pdf, 2.7 MB)           o Spanish version (pdf, 2.9 MB)

Dissemination Project Leaflet

CityVienna (A) Stockholm (S)Oslo (N)London (GB)Santander (E)Helsinki (SF)

Final Dissemination Workshop Thursday, 23rd January 2003: Welcome reception and registration Friday, 24th January 2003: Workshop Impressions ,  List of participants

Programme Final Workshop

 9:00    Registration                                                                               

Introductory Session

 9:30Welcome                                      Prof. Hermann Knoflacher (TUW-IVV)  
 9:45New: The Viennese perspective   

Johannes Gielge (Municipal

Department 18 - Urban Development

and Planning)


The Land Use Transport

Research Cluster                      

Eric Ponthieu (EU Commission)

The project PROSPECTS: 

Overview and background         

Tony May (ITS Leeds)
 10:45 Coffee break                            


Session 1: Decision Makers Guidebook


Lessons learnt about cities' decision

making requirements 

Andres Monzon (UPM)                

Introduction decision makers


Nick Marler (ITS Leeds)
 11:55Overview PROSPECTS case studiesTony May (ITS Leeds)


Session 2: Methological Guidebook


 14:00Appraisal and participation             Harald Minken (TOI)                  

Appraisal case study using a LUTI


Anders Karlstrom (KTH)

Appraisal case sstudy using a

Sketch Planning Model

Paul Pfaffenbichler (TUW-IVV)
 15:30Coffee break 


Session 3: Policy Guidebook (KonSULT)


 16:00KonSULT presentation                   Tony May (ITS Leeds)                
 16:20KonSULT hands on experienceNick Marler (ITS Leeds)
 17:00Future plans (PLUME, SIMPLE)Tony May (ITS Leeds)


Saturday, 25th January 2003: Site Visit: Renewal and neighbourhood improvement in dense city quarters in Ottakring



Presented Papers

Presented Papers:



  • P. C. Pfaffenbichler, G. Emberger (2003) , "Are European cities becoming similar?", aubmitted to CORP 2003, 8. Symposion zur Rolle der Informationstechnologie in der und für die Raumplanung", Vienna, 25 February - 1 March 2003
  • A. D. May, S. P. Shepherd and P. C. Pfaffenbichler (2002) , “Optimal urban land use and transport strategies”, Seamless and Sustainable Transport, Singapore, 2002
  • R.D. Jonsson (2002), "Optimal sustainability in the land use and transport system, a Stockholm case study", Sixth Workshop of the Transport, Land Use and Environment (TLE) Network, Haugesund September 27-29, 2002
  • P. C. Pfaffenbichler, S. P. Shepherd (2002), "The development of a sketch planning model to assess land-use transport policies", STELLA Focus Group 4 Workshop, Helsinki, 3-4 May 2002
  • A. Monzon (2002), “Integration of land uses and transport in the N-III corridor: the PROSPECTS project”. INTATME project workshop, (INtegrating Alternative TrAnsporT with a MEtro line), SAVE programme, Madrid, 19 February 2002
  • R.D. Jonsson (2002), "PROSPECTS: Optimering av hållbara transport- opch markanvändningsstrategier", Transportforum, Linköping, January 2002.
  • M. Lopez and J.D. Gonzalez (2001), "Land use and transport policies in Europe", "Regional Development Congress". Madrid, November 28-30 2001
  • A. Monzon, J.D. Gonzalez and P. Vieira (2001), "Impacts on mobility and activities location of metro line 9 extension to Arganda". “Regional Development Congress", Madrid, 28-30 November 2001
  • D. Jonsson (2001), "Calibration of an integrated transport and land use model, IMREL, for use with a transport model, SAMPERS", Fifth Workshop of the Nordic Research Network on Modelling Transport, Land-Use and the Environment, 28-30 September 2001
  • P. C. Pfaffenbichler (2001), "Promoting cycle use to counteract urban sprawl", Proceedings "Velo-City 2001", Glasgow, Edinburgh, UK, 17-21 September 2001
  • P. C. Pfaffenbichler, G. Emberger (2001), "Ein strategisches Flächennutzungs-/Verkehrsmodell als Werkzeug raumrelevanter Planungen". Proceedings "CORP 2001, 6. Symposion zur Rolle der Informationstechnologie in der und für die Raumplanung", Vienna, 14-16 February 2001, Download (pdf, 243 kB)
  • H. Knoflacher, P. C. Pfaffenbichler, G. Emberger (2000) , "A strategic transport model-based tool to support urban decision making processes". Proceedings "Second International Conference on Decision making in Urban and Civil Engineering"; Lyon, France, 20-22 November 2000
  • A. Monzón, J.-D. González (2000), "TRAVEL DEMAND IMPACTS OF A NEW PRIVATELY OPERATED SUBURBAN RAIL IN THE MADRID N-III CORRIDOR", Transport Department, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, presented at the ETC in Cambridge


Other publications:



  • A. D. May (2000), "The subtle equations of urban mobility". Interview in RTD Info 27 (pdf, 1 MB), September 2000, p. 27



Description of Work


Problems to be solved:

Project PROSPECTS is designed to help city authorities meet the challenges set in "The Common Transport Policy" which advocates the achievement of sustainable mobility.  Sustainability in that sense is currently jeopardised by the growth in car ownership and use, the parallel dominance of road vehicles in freight transport and the decentralisation of urban land use.  The resulting problems include congestion, which is extending over longer period and larger areas; increased pollutants, noise and visual intrusion; higher levels of fuel consumption, and hence carbon dioxide emissions, adversely affecting the global environment; higher numbers of road accidents; reduced accessibility by public transport and lower quality journeys on foot and by cycle, thus aggravating problems of social exclusion; and, though all of these, a deterioration in quality of life and in the efficiency of the urban economy.  City authorities have available an increasing range of policy measures to tackle these problems and are actively seeking integrated solutions.  However, it is often difficult to identify that combination of measures which will achieve the optimal strategy for a particular city.  Moreover, there are several barriers to implementing optimal strategies, including practical problems, lack of legislation, division of responsibilities, lack of finance and, above all, lack of public acceptance.


Scientific objectives and approach:

The principal objective of PROSPECTS is to provide cities with the guidance which they need in order to generate optimal land use and transport strategies to meet the challenge of sustainability in their particular circumstances.  The sub-objectives, each of which is associated with a separate technical Work Package, are:



  • To identify the decision making needs of cities
  • To assess and enhance evaluation tools to aid decision making
  • To assess and enhance forecasting and analysis tools for the land use/transport system
  • To publish a Decision-Makers’ Guidebook and supporting Methodological and Policy Guidebooks
  • To disseminate the results and exploit the three Guidebooks and the enhanced tools.


The first Work Package involves defining cities’ policy objectives, underlying trends and future scenarios, policy options, decision making processes and barriers to implementation.  These are identified initially with the Core Cities (Edinburgh , Helsinki , Madrid (1) , (2) , (3) , Oslo , Stockholm and Vienna) and then tested through the wider survey.


The second Work Package focuses on the tools necessary for evaluating strategies against the specified objectives, identifying optimal strategies in terms of these objectives, and presenting information to decision makers and the public in an easily interpreted form. It develops current methods for multi-criteria analysis and optimisation against objective functions, and extend their application to land use measures. It uses GIS tools to aid presentation of results.


The third Work Package develops existing forecasting and analysis tools.  It starts with a review of the requirements arising from the review of decision making requirements, and the ability of existing tools to meet those requirements.  It then develops existing policy explorers and sketch planning models for application and testing in the six Core Cities, and enhances four existing Core City land use/transport interaction models.  The models are used both to illustrate decision making methods and to test policy options.


Expected impacts:

The principal outputs are provided by the fourth Workpackage, which produces the three Guidebooks.  The first of these is a Decision-Makers’ Guidebook, designed for politicians, senior officials and the public, and outlining the approach to decision making, the policy options, and the support tools available.  The second, the Methodological Guidebook, is designed for professionals, and provides more extensive advice on the support tools for evaluation, forecasting and analysis. The third, the Policy Guidebook, describes current experience with the full range of policy options, and is of interest to politicians, professionals and the public.


The three Guidebooks, covering decision making, methodology and policy advice, will be designed for ease of use by city authorities, and by the public in their cities.  The advice will enable them to enhance sustainability, the environment, social inclusion and quality of life through the design of more effective land use and transport strategies.  In addition it should help in improving the efficiency and accessibility of the transport system, hence reducing costs and increasing competitiveness.  Our work in OPTIMA and FATIMA identified strategies which increased economic efficiency by 20-30% over previously preferred strategies, using transport policy measures alone.  We would expect to be able to improve further on this by including land use measures and we will assess the potential scale of these benefits for all our Core Cities.  The advice will also help to identify the key barriers to implementation, and the case for overcoming them, thus facilitating the achievement of optimal strategies.  In all of these ways cities' competitiveness, both economically and as places to live, should be significantly enhanced.


Project structure:



Duration:  36 month

Related Research Projects

5th Framework Projects:

Link to LUTR project cluster

4th Framework Projects:

FATIMA (FinancialAssistance for Transport I ntegration in MetropolitanAreas)

OPTIMA (Optimisation of Policies for T ransport I ntegration in MetropolitanAreas)

The PROSPECTS Project Consortium


Project Co-ordinator:

    The Institute for Transport Studies (ITS)

    University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, England



    Kungl Tekniska Högskolan (KTH)

    Vallhallavaegen 79, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden

    Contacts: Daniel Jonsson


    The Institute of Transport Economics (TØI)

    PO Box 6100 Etterstad, Grensesvingen 7, Oslo, N-0602, Norway

    Contacts: Harald Minken


    The Institute of Transport Planning and Traffic Engineering (TUW-IVV)

    Technical University of Vienna, Gußhausstraße 30/231,

    Vienna, A-1040, Austria

    Tel: (+43-1) 58 801/23114    Fax: (+43-1) 58 801/23199

    Contacts: Paul Pfaffenbichler , Guenter Emberger


    The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT )

    VTT Communities and Infrastructure, PO Box 1902,

    Sähkömiehentie 3, Espoo, 02044, Finland


    Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM)

    Transport Department, Escuela de Ingenieros de Caminos, Canales y Puertos

    Avda. Profesor Aranguren,s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain

    Tel: +34 91 336 53 73  Fax: +34 91 336 66 56

    Contacts: Andres Monzon , Maria Lopez-Lambas


    David Simmonds Consultancy (DSC)

    Jesus Lane 10, CB5 8BA Cambridge, England


    MVA Limited (MVAC)

    Victoria Way MVA House, GU21 1DD Woking, England